On January 12, 2026, Apple announced something nobody expected: Siri will use Google Gemini as its AI brain. Not OpenAI. Not Claude. Google.
This deal, valued at approximately $1 billion annually, marks the most significant turning point in the artificial intelligence war since ChatGPT exploded in November 2022.
But the Apple deal is just the tip of the iceberg. January 2026 market data reveals a tectonic shift:
- Google Gemini: From 5.7% to 21.5% of the global market (+277% in 12 months)
- ChatGPT: From 86.7% to 64-68% of the market (-22 percentage points)
- Claude: Dominates 54% of the enterprise coding market
- Grok: Surpasses Perplexity with ~3% market share
This is the complete story of how Google went from loser to serious contender, what it means for you as a user, and why 2026 may be the year Gemini finally catches up to ChatGPT.
ChatGPT's Fall: From 87% to 64%
Exactly one year ago, ChatGPT was practically synonymous with "artificial intelligence." With 86.7% of the global AI chatbot market, OpenAI seemed unbeatable.
Today, that advantage has evaporated by nearly a third.
What Happened?
1. The Ads Controversy (January 2026)
On January 16, OpenAI announced that ChatGPT would show personalized ads in the free and Go ($8/month) plans. Sam Altman, who had publicly said he "hated" ads and that mixing them with AI would be "disturbing," had to eat his words.
The reaction was brutal:
- Massive exodus of Free users to Gemini and Claude
- 8% drop in daily engagement according to Similarweb
- Criticism from the tech community for "betraying founding values"
2. Gemini 3 Surpassed Key Benchmarks
Google didn't stand idle. Gemini 3 Pro achieved:
- 1501 Elo on LMArena (world record)
- 91.9% on GPQA Diamond (PhD-level reasoning)
- 76.2% on SWE-Bench (coding)
- 81% on MMMU-Pro (multimodal reasoning)
3. Native Distribution Wins
While ChatGPT requires you to download an app or visit a website, Gemini is embedded where you already are:
- Chrome (3.5 billion users)
- Android (3 billion devices)
- Google Workspace (3 billion users)
- Google Search (8.5 billion daily searches)
- And now: iOS/Siri (2+ billion Apple devices)
You don't need to "go use Gemini." Gemini comes to you.
The Apple-Google Deal: $1 Billion for Siri
On January 12, 2026, Apple and Google announced a deal that redefines the AI landscape.
Deal Terms
| Aspect | Detail |
|---|---|
| Type | Multi-year, white-label agreement |
| Estimated value | ~$1 billion/year |
| Custom model | 1.2 trillion parameters (Apple exclusive) |
| Launch | iOS 26.4 (March-April 2026) |
| Branding | No visible Google branding ("white-label") |
What This Means for iPhone Users
Siri will become significantly smarter:
- Better understanding of personal context
- On-screen awareness (understands what's on your screen)
- Deep control of third-party apps
- Natural multi-turn conversations
What DOESN'T change:
- It's still "Siri" (you won't see Google branding)
- Privacy maintained with on-device Apple Intelligence
- ChatGPT still available as an "opt-in" option
Why OpenAI Lost the Deal
According to Financial Times, OpenAI rejected the deal, not the other way around. The reasons:
- Priority on their own hardware: OpenAI is developing a device with Jony Ive (former Apple designer)
- Don't want to be Apple's "backend": They prefer direct relationship with users
- Business model differences: Apple wanted white-label, OpenAI wanted branding
The result: Apple conducted a "rigorous evaluation" of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta Llama, and chose Gemini.
Gemini 3: Technical Specifications
Google launched Gemini 3 with three variants designed for different use cases.
Model Family
| Model | Use | Features |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | Complex tasks, advanced reasoning | Multimodal, agentic capabilities |
| Gemini 3 Flash | Speed, reduced cost | Accessible frontier intelligence |
| Gemini 3 Deep Think | Ultra-complex reasoning | Multiple interconnected steps |
The 1 Million Token Context Advantage
Gemini 3's most impressive specification is its 1 million token context window (up to 2M for enterprise).
What does this mean in practice?
- 1,500 pages of text in a single conversation
- 50,000 lines of code analyzed simultaneously
- 200+ episodes of transcribed podcasts
- Complete 1-hour videos processed natively
Comparison with competitors:
| Model | Maximum context |
|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | 1,000,000 tokens |
| Claude 3.5 Sonnet | 200,000 tokens |
| ChatGPT-4o | ~128,000 tokens |
| GPT-5 | ~256,000 tokens |
This capability transforms previously impossible use cases:
- Analyzing complete legal contracts
- Reviewing entire code repositories
- Processing months of meeting transcripts
Native Multimodal Capabilities
Unlike ChatGPT, which "translates" between modalities, Gemini 3 processes natively:
- Text
- Images
- Audio
- Video
- Code
- PDFs
This means better performance on tasks that combine multiple formats, like analyzing a video with subtitles and generating a written summary.
Benchmarks: Gemini 3 vs ChatGPT-5.2
January 2026 benchmarks show tight competition, with each model leading in specific areas.
Complete Comparison Table
| Aspect | Gemini 3 Pro | ChatGPT 5.2 |
|---|---|---|
| Market share | 18-21.5% | 64-68% |
| Maximum context | 1M tokens | ~128K tokens |
| Native multimodal | Yes | Partial |
| Search speed | ~5 seconds | ~25 seconds |
| AIME 2025 (Math) | N/A | 100% |
| SWE-Bench (Coding) | 76.2% | 80% |
| Hallucinations | Less (search grounding) | More on real-time queries |
| Creative writing | Good | Excellent |
| Mathematical reasoning | Excellent (IMO: 23/25) | Excellent |
| Ecosystem integration | Google Suite, Android, Apple | Standalone, API |
| API price (1M tokens) | $2/$12 | $1.25/$10 |
| Free tier | Yes (limited) | Yes (with ads) |
Where Gemini 3 Wins
1. Massive Context (1M tokens)
No competitor comes close. For projects requiring analysis of large volumes of information, Gemini is the only viable option.
2. Fewer Hallucinations with Search Grounding
Gemini uses Google Search to verify information in real-time, significantly reducing "hallucinations" (made-up responses that sound plausible).
3. Search Speed
When you need updated information, Gemini responds in ~5 seconds vs ~25 seconds for ChatGPT.
4. Native Distribution
You don't need to go to gemini.google.com. Gemini is in Chrome, Android, Workspace, and soon in Siri.
Where ChatGPT 5.2 Wins
1. Coding (80% vs 76.2% on SWE-Bench)
ChatGPT remains the king of code. For developers, GPT-5 produces more consistent code with fewer errors.
2. Creative Writing
For long-form content, storytelling, and marketing copy, ChatGPT has a more polished and natural "style."
3. Consistency in Long Conversations
Gemini sometimes "forgets" context in very long conversations. ChatGPT maintains better coherence.
4. Deeper Chain-of-Thought
For problems requiring step-by-step reasoning, o1 and GPT-5 show more structured thinking.
Pricing: Which Is Cheaper?
Price is where Gemini competes aggressively.
Consumer Plans
| Plan | Gemini | ChatGPT |
|---|---|---|
| Free | Yes (no ads) | Yes (with ads since January 2026) |
| Basic | $19.99/month (Advanced) | $20/month (Plus) |
| Students | Free 1 year (selected regions) | Not available |
| Premium | $29.99/month (Ultra) | $200/month (Pro) |
API Pricing (for developers)
| Model | Input (per 1M tokens) | Output (per 1M tokens) |
|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3 Pro | $2.00 | $12.00 |
| Gemini 3 Flash | $0.50 | $3.00 |
| GPT-5 | $1.25 | $10.00 |
| Claude Opus 4.5 | $5.00 | $25.00 |
Price Verdict:
- For consumers: Gemini wins (free tier without ads)
- For developers: GPT-5 is slightly cheaper, but Flash is unbeatable for low cost
Real User Opinions
After analyzing hundreds of reviews on Reddit, X (Twitter), and specialized forums, these are the patterns we found.
What Users Love About Gemini 3
On mathematical capabilities:
"I've been testing Gemini 3 Pro for 48 hours. The mathematical reasoning is impressive - it correctly solved 23/25 problems from the International Mathematical Olympiad qualifier. Better than most human mathematicians."
On long context:
"Gemini 3.0 is the only one that doesn't collapse with my 800-page novel manuscript. Context size matters."
On search:
"For non-coding cases, Gemini 3 hallucinates much less because it uses search grounding. Gemini's search grounding is significantly better than ChatGPT."
Most Common Criticisms
Conservative guardrails:
"Gemini 3.0 is conservative by design" - multiple reviewers report limitations on certain types of creative or controversial content.
Variable latency:
"Trade-offs include slower latency in Deep Think mode (10-15 seconds), premium pricing (~$30/month Ultra)"
Inconsistent experiences:
"I used Gemini 3, didn't find it better than other models. I don't understand the hype."
Case Study: Equifax
Credit company Equifax conducted a pilot with 1,500 employees using Gemini 3:
- 97% requested to keep their licenses after the pilot
- 90% reported measurable increases in work quality and quantity
- Employees saved over 1 hour/day on routine tasks
The Future: Predictions for 2026-2027
Scenario 1: Google Reaches Parity (35-40% vs 35-40%)
Conditions:
- iOS 26.4 with Siri+Gemini is a massive success
- ChatGPT with ads generates more exodus
- Gemini 4 arrives before GPT-6
Probability: 30%
Scenario 2: ChatGPT Stabilizes (50% vs 25%)
Conditions:
- OpenAI launches GPT-6 with significant improvements
- The Jony Ive device generates buzz
- ChatGPT ads don't bother users as much as expected
Probability: 45%
Scenario 3: Total Fragmentation
Conditions:
- No model clearly dominates
- Claude captures 15-20% of the market
- Open-source models (DeepSeek, Llama) capture 20%+
- ChatGPT ~30%, Gemini ~25%, others ~45%
Probability: 25%
Trends That Will Define 2026
1. From Assistant to Agent
2026 marks the transition from AI that "talks" to AI that "acts." Gartner predicts that 40% of enterprise apps will use AI agents this year.
2. Massive Infrastructure Investment
Goldman Sachs estimates $527 billion in AI capex investment from hyperscalers alone (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta).
3. European Regulation
The EU AI Act fully applies in August 2026. This could favor European companies or create barriers for OpenAI/Google.
4. Robotics and Physical AI
The industry seeks new ideas beyond LLM scaling. Google (with DeepMind) has an advantage here.
Our Experience Testing Gemini 3 vs ChatGPT
After using both platforms over the past weeks, here's our honest assessment.
What We Use Gemini 3 For
Long document analysis: If you need to process contracts, academic papers, or extensive code, Gemini is clearly superior. The 1M token capacity is unmatched.
Research with updated sources: Search grounding significantly reduces hallucinations. For questions about recent events, Gemini gives more accurate answers.
Tasks integrated with Google Workspace: If you already live in Gmail, Docs, and Drive, Gemini feels natural.
What We Still Use ChatGPT For
Complex coding: For serious software development, GPT-5 produces cleaner code with fewer iterations.
Creative writing and copy: ChatGPT's "style" remains more refined for marketing content, blogs, and storytelling.
Long and complex conversations: ChatGPT maintains context better in multi-hour sessions.
The Practical Verdict
Casual user: Use Gemini (free, no ads, integrated into Chrome)
Developer: Depends. Complex coding → ChatGPT. Large codebase analysis → Gemini.
Business professional: If you use Google Workspace, Gemini. If you use Microsoft 365, Copilot/ChatGPT.
Student: Gemini (free tier for students, no ads)
Content creator: ChatGPT remains superior for creative writing.
Conclusion: The War Has Just Begun
January 2026 will mark a before and after in artificial intelligence history.
For the first time since ChatGPT's launch in November 2022, Google has proven it can compete head-to-head. The numbers are clear:
- Gemini 3 went from 5.7% to 21.5% market share in 12 months
- ChatGPT fell from 86.7% to 64-68%
- Apple chose Gemini over OpenAI for the future of Siri
- Native distribution (Chrome, Android, iOS) is an advantage OpenAI can't match
Who Will Win?
The honest answer: nobody will win completely.
We're entering an era of productive fragmentation, where different models dominate different niches:
- Gemini: Integration, long context, search grounding
- ChatGPT: Coding, creative writing, recognized brand
- Claude: Enterprise, privacy, ethical reasoning
- Open-source: Customization, low costs, data sovereignty
The Final Recommendation
Don't marry any model. Competition between Gemini, ChatGPT, and Claude is excellent for users:
- Prices dropping
- Capabilities improving
- More generous free tiers
- Accelerated innovation
My advice: Try Gemini 3 for free. If you're already a ChatGPT Plus user, keep your subscription but use both depending on the task. AI is a tool, not a religion.
And if you're waiting for a "definitive winner" in the AI war, prepare to wait a long time. This battle has just begun.
Have you tried Gemini 3 yet? Is ChatGPT still your favorite? Competition benefits all users. Choose the tool that best solves YOUR problems.
