Waymo hits $110B valuation days after robotaxi struck a child

The largest funding round in autonomous vehicle history

Waymo, the robotaxi company owned by Alphabet, just closed what I can only describe as a massive funding round: $16 billion that pushes its valuation to $110 billion. To put this in perspective, that's more than the GDP of countries like Paraguay or Bolivia.

Alphabet is contributing the lion's share ($13 billion), but what really stands out is the list of external investors who've joined: Sequoia Capital, DST Global, Dragoneer Investment Group, Andreessen Horowitz, and Abu Dhabi sovereign fund Mubadala. When you see Sequoia and a16z betting together on something, you know the smart money is convinced.

The numbers backing the valuation

After years of skepticism about when robotaxis would generate real revenue, Waymo finally has metrics to show:

My verdict is clear: these numbers are no longer PowerPoint promises. These are real, paid trips with no driver. Waymo has gone from being an Alphabet experiment to a business with measurable traction.

The accident overshadowing the celebration

But here's the part press releases don't highlight. On January 23, 2026, just one week before announcing this mega-round, a Waymo robotaxi struck an 8-year-old child near Grant Elementary School in Santa Monica, California.

What exactly happened

According to NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) reports:

1. The child ran across the street from behind a double-parked SUV
2. The robotaxi emergency braked, reducing speed from 17 mph to about 6 mph
3. The vehicle hit the child at low speed
4. The child stood up immediately and walked to the sidewalk
5. Waymo called 911 and the vehicle remained at the scene until police cleared it to leave

The child suffered minor injuries and was treated on scene. But that doesn't change the fundamental fact: a driverless car hit a kid near a school during drop-off hours.

The federal investigation

NHTSA has opened a preliminary evaluation focused on two critical questions:

• Did Waymo's vehicle exercise appropriate caution given its proximity to an elementary school during drop-off hours?
• How do Waymo robotaxis behave in school zones, including speed limit compliance?

I won't sugarcoat it: this investigation comes at the worst possible time for Waymo. And it's not the only one.

The troubling pattern: school buses and children zones

The Santa Monica accident isn't isolated. The same week, the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) opened another investigation after Waymo robotaxis illegally passed stopped school buses in Austin, Texas, at least 19 times since the start of the school year.

Waymo had already issued a software recall in December 2025 to fix this behavior in over 3,000 vehicles. But incidents continued.

This reveals a concerning pattern: Waymo's systems seem to struggle specifically with scenarios involving children and school environments. And if there's one context where error tolerance should be zero, that's exactly it.

Waymo vs Tesla: two philosophies, one race

While Waymo raises $16 billion, Tesla continues its own path toward robotaxis. The differences in approach are revealing:

If you ask me directly: Waymo has the technology advantage today, but Tesla has the scale advantage tomorrow. The problem is that "tomorrow" has been promised since 2016.

Safety data: are robotaxis actually safer?

Here's where the debate gets interesting. Waymo published data showing:

• 91% fewer crashes with serious injuries compared to human drivers
• 80% fewer crashes causing any injury
• 57% fewer police-reported crashes

In insurance terms, Swiss Re reports 92% fewer bodily injury claims and 88% fewer property damage claims across 25 million analyzed miles.

But there's one stat few mention: Waymo has driven approximately 127 million miles and has been involved in at least 2 fatal accidents. Though not found responsible in either, some argue this represents a death-per-mile rate comparable to or slightly higher than human drivers (1 death per 123 million miles in the US).

My honest analysis

After reviewing all available data, my conclusion is nuanced:

1. Waymo robotaxis are probably safer than the average human driver under normal conditions
2. But they have specific blind spots that humans handle better (school zones, unpredictable child behavior)
3. The question isn't whether they're perfect, but whether they're good enough to scale

Aggressive expansion: 20 new cities in 2026

Despite regulatory scrutiny, Waymo isn't slowing down. The company has announced plans to expand to over 20 additional cities in 2026, including:

Confirmed cities for 2026

• Detroit
• Las Vegas
• Minneapolis
• New Orleans
• Tampa
• Philadelphia
• Pittsburgh
• Baltimore
• St. Louis
• San Diego
• Seattle
• Denver
• Nashville

International expansion

• Tokyo (first market outside the US)
• London (in negotiations)

Additionally, Waymo plans to enable its vehicles to operate on freeways in San Francisco and Los Angeles before rolling it out network-wide. Currently, robotaxis are limited to urban streets.

Regulatory context: Senate hearing on February 4

The timing of all this isn't coincidental. The US Senate Commerce Committee has scheduled a hearing on autonomous vehicles for February 4, 2026, just days after the mega-round closed.

Mauricio Peña, Waymo's Chief Safety Officer, will testify before senators. Predictable questions will include:

• Why do robotaxis keep passing stopped school buses after the recall?
• What specific protocols exist for school zones?
• Should there be uniform federal regulation or let each state decide?

My prediction: we'll see bipartisan pressure to establish minimum federal safety standards for robotaxis, especially in areas with minors present.

Investors betting on the long term

Despite everything, money keeps flowing. The obvious question is: why?

The bull case

1. Massive TAM: US passenger transportation moves $800 billion annually
2. Declining operating costs: No driver = no salaries = 60-70% margins
3. Network effects: More trips = more data = better AI = more safety = more trips
4. Technology moat: 15 years head start over competitors
5. Alphabet backing: $13B from parent company means infinite runway

The bear case

1. Regulatory risk: A fatal accident involving children could pause the entire industry
2. Scaling costs: Each new city requires detailed mapping and permits
3. Tesla lurking: If FSD reaches Level 4, Waymo loses its edge overnight
4. Political climate: Senators from both parties calling for more regulation

My final verdict

Waymo finds itself in a moment of perfect paradox:

On one hand, it just closed the largest funding round in autonomous vehicle history, with top-tier investors betting $16 billion on its future.

On the other hand, it faces the most intense scrutiny in its history, with two simultaneous federal investigations related to child safety.

If you ask me directly: I'd bet on Waymo long-term, but with eyes wide open about the risks. The technology works. The safety numbers, in aggregate, are impressive. But autonomous vehicles need to be not just statistically safer, but perceived as absolutely reliable.

A child struck near a school, even with minor injuries, carries media and emotional weight that no statistic can counter.

The February 4 Senate hearing will be telling. If Waymo navigates this moment without significant operational restrictions, the path to one million weekly trips is clear. If not, we could see the first serious brake on the robotaxi revolution.

Frequently asked questions

How much is Waymo worth in 2026?

Waymo has a valuation of $110 billion after closing a $16 billion round led by Alphabet, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, DST Global, and Mubadala.

What happened with the child struck by Waymo?

On January 23, 2026, a Waymo robotaxi hit an 8-year-old child near a school in Santa Monica, California. The child suffered minor injuries. NHTSA opened an investigation into Waymo's behavior in school zones.

Are Waymo robotaxis safe?

According to Waymo data, its vehicles have 91% fewer crashes with serious injuries than human drivers. However, the company faces investigations for incidents involving school buses and children zones.

Which cities have Waymo operating without drivers?

Waymo operates driverless in 10 US cities: Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando. It plans to expand to 20+ cities in 2026.

How many trips does Waymo complete per week?

Waymo currently completes 450,000 weekly trips and aims to reach 1 million weekly trips by end of 2026.