David Brooks
The Perfect Storm Nobody Saw Coming
I won't sugarcoat it: if you're thinking about buying a GPU in 2026, prepare to pay double what you expected. The RTX 5090, NVIDIA's most powerful card, could hit $5,000 before the year ends. That's a 150% increase over its $1,999 launch price.
The reason? An unprecedented DRAM memory crisis, fueled by the insatiable hunger of AI data centers.
After weeks analyzing TrendForce reports, manufacturer statements, and market movements, my verdict is clear: 2026 will be the worst year in a decade to buy graphics hardware. But there are alternatives, and I'm going to explain exactly what's happening and what you can do.
Why Prices Are Skyrocketing
AI Is Eating All the Memory
The problem has a name: HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). This specialized memory is the heart of data center GPUs like the NVIDIA H100 and H200. The world's three memory manufacturers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—have redirected their production capacity toward HBM because it generates much higher margins.
The numbers are devastating:
- AI will consume 20% of all global DRAM capacity in 2026, according to TrendForce
- SK Hynix has already sold out all its HBM, DRAM, and NAND capacity through late 2026
- Micron exited the consumer market in December 2025 to prioritize data center clients
This means less memory available for the graphics cards regular people use. And when supply drops while demand stays constant, you know what happens to prices.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Between May and November 2025, the spot price of 16GB DDR5 memory went from $5.5 to $20. That's a 264% increase in six months.
For GPUs, memory represents up to 80% of the total cost when NVIDIA ships chips to its manufacturing partners (ASUS, MSI, Gigabyte). If memory goes up 264%, you don't need to be an economist to understand what will happen to the final price.
Which GPUs Are Most Affected
NVIDIA: Prices Through the Roof
| GPU | Launch Price | Current Price (Jan 2026) | H2 2026 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTX 5090 | $1,999 | $3,000 - $4,200 | $5,000 |
| RTX 5080 | $999 | $1,200 - $1,500 | $1,800 - $2,000 |
| RTX 5070 Ti | $749 | $829 - $1,250 | Production cut |
| RTX 4090 (used) | $1,599 | $1,800 - $2,200 | $2,200 - $2,500 |
But here's the worst part: NVIDIA will cut mid-range GPU production by 30-40% during the first half of 2026. The RTX 5070 and RTX 5060 Ti will be harder to find than ever.
Why? Because NVIDIA profits more from selling fewer units at higher prices than flooding the market with cheap GPUs that use scarce memory.
AMD: More Moderate Increases, But Inevitable
AMD is trying to maintain more competitive prices, but they're suffering too:
| GPU | Launch Price | January 2026 Price | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| RX 9070 XT 16GB | $599 | $619 | +$20 |
| RX 9070 16GB | $549 | $569 | +$20 |
| RX 9060 XT 16GB | $349 | $369 | +$20 |
AMD charges $10 extra per 8GB of VRAM to their manufacturing partners. And they've already announced more increases in the coming months.
David McAfee, AMD VP, declared at CES 2026: "Our goal is to deliver more value for the money... Even with increasing component costs, we're going to drive that as aggressively as we possibly can." Translation: prices will go up, but they'll try to make it hurt less than with NVIDIA.
Timeline of the Disaster
To understand how we got here:
- May 2025: DDR5 16G DRAM price at $5.5
- October 2025: NVIDIA ceases RTX 4090 production
- November 2025: DRAM rises to $20 (+264%)
- December 2025: Micron exits consumer market
- December 2025: PowerColor warns: "Buy before year-end"
- January 2026: ASUS confirms price increases
- January 2026: AMD begins increases to partners
- Q1 2026: TrendForce projects DRAM +50-60% quarterly
- H1 2026: NVIDIA cuts production 30-40%
- Mid 2026: Expected price peak
- Q4 2027: Projected end of crisis
What the Key Players Are Saying
Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO), CES 2026:
"We're working on things that are utterly shocking... there would need to be more memory factories because the needs of AI are so high."
Translation: NVIDIA knows there's a problem, but their priority is data centers, not gamers.
ASUS (January 2026):
"Current fluctuations in supply are primarily due to memory supply constraints, which have temporarily affected production and restocking cycles."
IDC (Market Analysis):
"2026 is shaping up to be a year in which technology becomes more expensive, driven by supply constraints rather than demand growth."
Your Alternatives: What to Do If You Need a GPU
Option 1: Cloud Gaming
If you ask me directly, this is the best option for most gamers in 2026:
| Service | Price | What You Get |
|---|---|---|
| GeForce NOW Ultimate | $19.99/mo | RTX 50 performance, 100h/mo limit |
| Xbox Cloud Gaming | Included in Game Pass | Browser access |
| Shadow PC | ~$30/mo | Full PC in the cloud |
| Boosteroid | <€10/mo | Budget option |
As Tom's Guide put it: "2026 will be the year of cloud gaming — and we may not even have a choice."
Option 2: Used GPU Market
If you need physical hardware:
| GPU | Used Price (Jan 2026) | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| RTX 4090 | $1,800 - $2,200 | AI/ML, professional creators |
| RTX 4080 Super | $900 - $950 | Best value for 4K gaming |
| RTX 4080 | ~$800 | Good price/performance |
| RX 7900 XTX | Similar to 4080 | 4.2% faster than RTX 4080 |
My verdict: a used RTX 4080 Super at $900 is probably the best purchase right now if you need a GPU for 4K gaming.
Option 3: Wait
If you can wait 6+ months:
- Used RTX 4090 prices could correct 15-25%
- New Micron factories come online in 2027-2028
- The crisis should ease by Q4 2027
But let's be realistic: waiting almost two years isn't an option for everyone.
Impact Beyond Gamers
This crisis doesn't just affect those who want to play at 4K:
- Content creators: Rendering, video editing, and 3D require high VRAM
- AI/ML developers: The RTX 4090's 24GB remains attractive for local training
- Businesses: Dell and Lenovo already raised PC prices by 15-20%
- General PC market: IDC projects a 5-9% contraction in 2026
The Oligopoly That Has Us Trapped
Here's the root of the problem: 95% of global DRAM production is controlled by just 3 companies: Samsung (35% HBM market share), SK Hynix (53%), and Micron.
When Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon compete for limited HBM capacity for their AI infrastructure, consumers are the ones who lose. These companies have million-dollar contracts and absolute priority.
Furthermore, the fixed-price memory contracts from 2025 have already expired. Now GPU manufacturers are exposed to spot market prices, which go up every week.
Conclusion: Brace for Impact
There's no way to soften this: 2026 will be brutal for buying graphics cards. Prices will continue rising until mid-year, and the situation won't normalize until late 2027.
My recommendations:
- If you can wait, wait. But not indefinitely.
- If you need a GPU now, the used market is your best friend. RTX 4080 Super at $900 is the best value.
- If you just want to game, try GeForce NOW or Xbox Cloud Gaming. $20/month is much more sensible than $5,000 for an RTX 5090.
- Don't buy new high-end at inflated prices. You're paying a premium you won't recover.
AI promised us an incredible future. What they didn't tell us is that future would consume all the world's memory. And now gamers, creators, and anyone who needs a GPU are footing the bill.
